On May 13th, the Mariners were 16-23, in the midst of a three-game losing streak and looking every bit the 100-loss team they were last year. They have lost only twice since then. Of course, it helps that in the four series they've played, they faced the Twins twice and the Padres once. Their other series being a two-gamer against the Angels at home. They are now just one game under .500 and a mere 1.5 games out of first place in the AL West. Beginning tonight, the M's embark on a 10-game homestand that could very well define their season. No one expected them to contend for a division title, and despite their teasing thus far, it is still a little incomprehensible. But the next week could tell us a different story. The Yankees are in town, as well as the Rays (the Orioles are sandwiched in-between). If they finish this homestand with an above .500 record and still within a game or two of the AL West, what then? It will be June at that point and the contenders and pretenders will be a little more established. The AL West seems to be down and potentially ripe for the taking. Would it be possible to try and accelerate the plans for contention and deal away a prospect or two to acquire an offensive juggernaut this team needs?
Well, of course, you can always deal your young players, even to contenders. But it's hard to say the M's are deep enough in their farm system to be able to pull off any major deal. They won't trade Dustin Ackley who will likely be called up in the next 2-3 weeks to help a sagging offense. Michael Pineda is a key part of the rotation. So you look to guys like Nick Franklin who could be the key piece to any deal. I just am not sure I see it. The farm system is better off, no doubt about it. It would just be very hard to dig into the system and deplete it a little bit to make a move with a team that was never supposed to contend in the first place.
Of course, the counter argument also comes from our backyard. When the Seahawks were at 6-9 and getting ready to face the St. Louis Rams in Week 17, a Seattle Times poll showed that many fans wanted them to lose and get a top-10 draft pick. They gave the Hawks almost no chance in the playoffs. Then they beat the Saints and we got to see "The Run." It showed that the playoffs are a little bit of an unknown. With Felix Hernandez as the ace, and a strong rotation behind him, what could the M's do in a playoff series? If they deal off Jack Wilson for something helpful, and maybe pair up Nick Franklin and Michael Saunders with a prospect and get a bat. This team isn't half bad.
It sure is fun to think about. And the next 10 days will prove a huge test for the M's. The Yanks have the tough challenge of facing both Pineda and Felix, and then Felix will pitch the first game against Tampa. The question of contention will be asked if they 31-28 after all of this. Hopefully I'm this optimistic in 10 days.
Go M's!
Friday, May 27, 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Beware of hindsight
The Mariners are in Baltimore this week (and have just lost their second of the series and fourth in a row). I suppose this would be a time for folks to watch Adam Jones and lament the trade that sent Jones along with Chris Tillman and others to the O's for Erik Bedard. I can't defend Bedard's tenure in Seattle. He's been hurt much of the time, including all last season. He's also been hardly a stalwart in terms of going deep into games, usually lasting five or six innings. Of course it's easy to look back and blast Bill Bavasi for making such a bad deal. It also seems that people want to use the performance of the player now as some sort of judgment about the talent level. That kind of look is dangerous and generally wrong. Think of it this way. If Ichiro attempts to steal second base and is thrown out, and then the next pitch is hit for a home run, it would be easy to say that it should have been a two-run homer. But that ignores context. The reason that pitch was thrown was due to the situation. If Ichiro had been on first, there is likely a different pitch thrown, leading to a different result. The same can be said for the development of players. There is no telling how Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Kim Mickolio, etc. would have developed under the Seattle Mariners. And certainly the Mariners would not have traded for Franklin Gutierrez with a young center fielder they were developing.
Now, the tools would have remained similar with Seattle, but it's the development of these tools that people have to think about. Would the Mariners have allowed Tillman to remain a starter in the minor leagues, or would he have been rushed to the majors in the bullpen much like Brandon Morrow? Would Adam Jones remained a left fielder? And to go even further with Adam Jones, how would a right-handed hitter that is starting to increasingly swing at pitches outside of the zone handle Safeco Field. The park chased Adrian Beltre out of town.
It is easy to look back and think about the team with the players they trade away and performing exactly as they are for another team. But context has to be considered. Speaking of Beltre, he struggled to match his prolific offensive numbers from L.A. in Seattle and then had a monster season in Boston after leaving. Safeco suffocated him. When you think about trades and how the GMs make dumb decisions, you have to understand that the numbers one player is putting up will not be the same for your team. It just doesn't work that way.
Odd Thoughts:
-I still miss the Sonics. It makes me sad to watch the team that they are now in the playoffs.
-Isaiah Thomas is making a bad choice sticking in the draft. IT, you are not Nate Robinson. Sorry.
-Finally, if you're a fantasy baseball player, you need to consider upgrading to simulation baseball. It really is a great step up in baseball knowledge.
Now, the tools would have remained similar with Seattle, but it's the development of these tools that people have to think about. Would the Mariners have allowed Tillman to remain a starter in the minor leagues, or would he have been rushed to the majors in the bullpen much like Brandon Morrow? Would Adam Jones remained a left fielder? And to go even further with Adam Jones, how would a right-handed hitter that is starting to increasingly swing at pitches outside of the zone handle Safeco Field. The park chased Adrian Beltre out of town.
It is easy to look back and think about the team with the players they trade away and performing exactly as they are for another team. But context has to be considered. Speaking of Beltre, he struggled to match his prolific offensive numbers from L.A. in Seattle and then had a monster season in Boston after leaving. Safeco suffocated him. When you think about trades and how the GMs make dumb decisions, you have to understand that the numbers one player is putting up will not be the same for your team. It just doesn't work that way.
Odd Thoughts:
-I still miss the Sonics. It makes me sad to watch the team that they are now in the playoffs.
-Isaiah Thomas is making a bad choice sticking in the draft. IT, you are not Nate Robinson. Sorry.
-Finally, if you're a fantasy baseball player, you need to consider upgrading to simulation baseball. It really is a great step up in baseball knowledge.
Monday, April 18, 2011
For the Greater Good
I find the phrase, "For the Greater Good" slightly appropriate. Not because it's explored in the final Harry Potter book that is now being released in the theaters, but it can really apply to the state of professional sports and their relation to their cities. Whom does a sports team belong to, and who benefits the most from having a franchise? The cut and dry answer is a team's owners. It certainly seems that way in the NBA. I can wax poetic all I want about the injustice of the Sonics leaving town, but that has been done and done better by others. But look at the playoffs that just started this past weekend. The first ever win for the Grizzlies franchise that barely had a chance to find success in Vancouver before being ripped away to Memphis. The former Sonics in the Sooner State were able to stave off a very game Denver Nuggets squad. And of course, people may not remember that the Lakers did not start in L.A. And now there's talk that the greater Los Angeles area will get yet another team. Are the Kings headed to Anaheim to become the Royals?
So that begs the questions, who do sports teams belong to? For David Stern and the NBA, the answer seems to be merely, "Us." The NBA and the owners are the sole benefactor of the teams and they just hope that fans like their product enough to buy it. It's almost like a movie. You can go see it, or not see it. Yet, I remember when Howard Schultz took ownership of the team in Seattle, he talked about a "public trust." The Sonics were not his team. They were our team.
I am a journalism student at Central Washington and was reading a book called The Elements of Journalism. In it there's a quote from Eugene Meyer who purchased the Washington Post in 1933. "In pursuit of the truth, the newspaper shall be prepared to make sacrifices of its material fortunes, if such a course be necessary for the public good." I couldn't help but hear Howard Schultz in my head when I read that quote. He talked about how the Sonics were for the people. Profit was of secondary concern. And then, in a short period of time, he was unhappy that due to a terrible NBA model, he was losing millions of dollars.
I don't blame him for being unhappy to lose money. I do think, however, that his lack of integrity has really damaged what was a really smart man. He very clearly didn't believe the Sonics were a public trust. And I certainly understand his reluctance to talk now about the deal because either he admits he lied or that he was swindled. How does he win there?
So I guess I just think that people who go into sports ownership need to be very clear in their heads about one thing. Who owns this team? Because if the answer the owners and the league, then I care a whole lot less about sports. If you are not reporting to me in some way, then why should I care? If the league truly believes the fans are the backbone of their success, then they need to make it extremely difficult, nearly impossible for franchise movement. Because that only hurts whom they claim to be most important. If the "good" you're after is profit, then perhaps our expectations should change as well.
So that begs the questions, who do sports teams belong to? For David Stern and the NBA, the answer seems to be merely, "Us." The NBA and the owners are the sole benefactor of the teams and they just hope that fans like their product enough to buy it. It's almost like a movie. You can go see it, or not see it. Yet, I remember when Howard Schultz took ownership of the team in Seattle, he talked about a "public trust." The Sonics were not his team. They were our team.
I am a journalism student at Central Washington and was reading a book called The Elements of Journalism. In it there's a quote from Eugene Meyer who purchased the Washington Post in 1933. "In pursuit of the truth, the newspaper shall be prepared to make sacrifices of its material fortunes, if such a course be necessary for the public good." I couldn't help but hear Howard Schultz in my head when I read that quote. He talked about how the Sonics were for the people. Profit was of secondary concern. And then, in a short period of time, he was unhappy that due to a terrible NBA model, he was losing millions of dollars.
I don't blame him for being unhappy to lose money. I do think, however, that his lack of integrity has really damaged what was a really smart man. He very clearly didn't believe the Sonics were a public trust. And I certainly understand his reluctance to talk now about the deal because either he admits he lied or that he was swindled. How does he win there?
So I guess I just think that people who go into sports ownership need to be very clear in their heads about one thing. Who owns this team? Because if the answer the owners and the league, then I care a whole lot less about sports. If you are not reporting to me in some way, then why should I care? If the league truly believes the fans are the backbone of their success, then they need to make it extremely difficult, nearly impossible for franchise movement. Because that only hurts whom they claim to be most important. If the "good" you're after is profit, then perhaps our expectations should change as well.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Jack Wilson and Michael Pineda
I think it would be tough to call yesterday's Mariner game fun. There are encouraging signs including a team that kept battling against a superior opponent. Erik Bedard showed some signs of rebounding from surgery and could be a decent starter for the M's this season. Of course, they all pale to me with the play that Jack Wilson made at second base. If you haven't seen it, you need to track it down on MLB.com. There are many factors that are going on that make this one of the best plays of the season, even early on. The bases were loaded and there were no outs. The infield was in to try and cut down a run at the plate, so Jack Wilson is in on the grass cutting down on his reaction time. Let's also think about Wilson's experience at 2nd base. In his major league career that started in 2001, he's played four games at second base. The first four games of this year. This new position was decided part way through spring training after Eric Wedge wanted Brendan Ryan to be the shortstop. There could be other reasons why Wilson is at second, such as he'll have more trade value when Dustin Ackley is ready for the majors, but whatever the cause, Wilson is not an experienced 2nd baseman. So an inexperienced second baseman who is in on the grass has the range and wherewithal to snag a grounder up the middle, somehow tag the base with his foot and then spin around and make an accurate throw to first to complete a double play. Just wow. What's amazing is that according to an ESPN.com poll last night (as of about 10:30) 20 percent more fans thought the Cleveland Indian triple play was more impressive. I'll admit, the triple play was not your usual triple play. They are often quite boring when it's a grounder that is right on the 3rd base bag, or a soft liner in which the runners are just dead ducks. But the best part of the triple play was Carlos Santana behind the dish. I just wonder if people hear triple play and that will always trump other plays. It's three outs after all! But for pure athleticism and beauty, give me Jumpin' Jack Flash's "mere" double play.
Michael Pineda starts today for the first time! In an interesting read, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield talks about how the Mariners were probably foolish in starting the rookie's clock early. If the Mariners had been more patient with Alex Rodriguez, he might have been on the 2001 team that won 116 games. There's a point here that I agree with. Seattle is not a competitive team this year. Pineda could use more time in the minors to work on his secondary pitches and come up in June a little more polished. It would also provide more excitement at a time when the M's are probably hovering around double-digit games out of first. But can we be sure that Pineda will stay healthy, as Dave Cameron asked a few weeks back? Stephen Strausberg was supposed to be the perfect rookie pitcher. Mark Prior before him. These guys who are thought almost injury proof have each succumbed to arm trouble. Perhaps Pineda will provide some joy in a season that is likely not going to have the ultimate joy. That said, it sure sucks that his first start is on the road, at Texas, against a great lineup. If the changeup is working however, it sure will be fun to watch him potentially embarrass Josh Hamilton and crew. :)
Go M's!
Michael Pineda starts today for the first time! In an interesting read, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield talks about how the Mariners were probably foolish in starting the rookie's clock early. If the Mariners had been more patient with Alex Rodriguez, he might have been on the 2001 team that won 116 games. There's a point here that I agree with. Seattle is not a competitive team this year. Pineda could use more time in the minors to work on his secondary pitches and come up in June a little more polished. It would also provide more excitement at a time when the M's are probably hovering around double-digit games out of first. But can we be sure that Pineda will stay healthy, as Dave Cameron asked a few weeks back? Stephen Strausberg was supposed to be the perfect rookie pitcher. Mark Prior before him. These guys who are thought almost injury proof have each succumbed to arm trouble. Perhaps Pineda will provide some joy in a season that is likely not going to have the ultimate joy. That said, it sure sucks that his first start is on the road, at Texas, against a great lineup. If the changeup is working however, it sure will be fun to watch him potentially embarrass Josh Hamilton and crew. :)
Go M's!
Friday, April 1, 2011
Thoughts on the upcoming 2011 Seattle Mariner season
Tonight's the night! The best night of the year. That first pitch will come from King Felix and once again I'll be hooked for 180 days on what the M's will do to win games not only this season, but in future seasons. The headlines will speak about Felix backing up a Cy Young season; Ichiro continuing his high level or the development of Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda. I think this season is most important for Jack Z though. Make the right moves during the season, he'll come back and get to complete the rebuilding job. Another season with a win total in the 60s, things are going to be pretty rough for him. He seems to be an above average executive who isn't quite the genius we all thought when he worked the Franklin Gutierrez trade. But this year will be crucial. Is Justin Smoak the real deal? If so, that works in Z's favor. Was starting Pineda in the majors in a lost season the right call? Can Miguel Olivo post decent numbers in Safeco? It's a big season for the upper management for sure.
The offense:
I hated the Olivo signing on two levels. One, it was a two-year deal. That never made much sense to me. Also, he seemed a bad fit for the park. Regardless, Olivo is a big key to getting the offense back on track. 2010 saw an offense of historically bad proportions. It is unlikely that we'll see it again, but of course nowhere does unlikely guarantee it won't happen. But getting the negativities out, this offense should be better. Figgins and Ichiro should get on base a lot in front Bradley and Cust. The offense should be better. I don't expect a lot of Olivo, but I think the development of Smoak as a hitter and Ackley when he comes up will make this a better team. That said, the offense is the most concerning part of the ballclub and will hold them back from being truly competitive, especially if Gutierrez is out for a significant portion of time. The hopeful part of me thinks that with a healthy Gutierrez and with Michael Saunders fixing his swing, this lineup will look pretty good by the end of the season.
The pitching:
When Michael Pineda was announced as the fifth starter, I went over the Mariner rotation. On paper, this could be one of the better rotations in the AL and in the top half of the majors. Barely in the top half, but it could be the 12th or 13th best rotation. This is, of course, a hopeful ranking with Bedard making 25-30 starts and Pineda pitching well for a rookie. There is no guarantee on the health of either nor Pineda transitioning successfully. But this rotation looks set up to be above average, the strength of the team. The bullpen is a little less settled and full of fireballers who may or may not throw strikes. The inclusion of Josh Lueke was interesting. He pretty much has to pan out on and off the field for that part of the Cliff Lee trade to backfire on Z. All indications are that he looks good though.
The outlook:
I could say that the M's look like a 75-win ballclub and be done with it. That's about where they end up which is a significant improvement from last season. But I don't think the win-loss record defines the success of this season. We'll look at Pineda and Ackley as one big part of the season. The other part is what Z can get for Aardsma and Jack Wilson. If he gets a decent haul out of either, then we can all be hopeful for 2012. That's the key to a fun and hope-building 2011 Mariner season.
The offense:
I hated the Olivo signing on two levels. One, it was a two-year deal. That never made much sense to me. Also, he seemed a bad fit for the park. Regardless, Olivo is a big key to getting the offense back on track. 2010 saw an offense of historically bad proportions. It is unlikely that we'll see it again, but of course nowhere does unlikely guarantee it won't happen. But getting the negativities out, this offense should be better. Figgins and Ichiro should get on base a lot in front Bradley and Cust. The offense should be better. I don't expect a lot of Olivo, but I think the development of Smoak as a hitter and Ackley when he comes up will make this a better team. That said, the offense is the most concerning part of the ballclub and will hold them back from being truly competitive, especially if Gutierrez is out for a significant portion of time. The hopeful part of me thinks that with a healthy Gutierrez and with Michael Saunders fixing his swing, this lineup will look pretty good by the end of the season.
The pitching:
When Michael Pineda was announced as the fifth starter, I went over the Mariner rotation. On paper, this could be one of the better rotations in the AL and in the top half of the majors. Barely in the top half, but it could be the 12th or 13th best rotation. This is, of course, a hopeful ranking with Bedard making 25-30 starts and Pineda pitching well for a rookie. There is no guarantee on the health of either nor Pineda transitioning successfully. But this rotation looks set up to be above average, the strength of the team. The bullpen is a little less settled and full of fireballers who may or may not throw strikes. The inclusion of Josh Lueke was interesting. He pretty much has to pan out on and off the field for that part of the Cliff Lee trade to backfire on Z. All indications are that he looks good though.
The outlook:
I could say that the M's look like a 75-win ballclub and be done with it. That's about where they end up which is a significant improvement from last season. But I don't think the win-loss record defines the success of this season. We'll look at Pineda and Ackley as one big part of the season. The other part is what Z can get for Aardsma and Jack Wilson. If he gets a decent haul out of either, then we can all be hopeful for 2012. That's the key to a fun and hope-building 2011 Mariner season.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Welcome to my blog
So, my grand and hopeful plan is to go back to school, get a degree and go out into the sports journalism world. In this economy, you gotta have something! So, in order to further my goals, I figured that expressing myself needs to be practice and honed and what better way than a blog no one will read!
I am pretty random person who loves to rant to himself in the car when a semi-truck obstructs his going the speed limit. So the blog will mostly be about whatever is in my head that day. It could be sports (likely) to the general populous (almost as likely) to things going on at CWU or in my life. I probably won't be too personal, nor do I expect that I will be the most timely updater, but I will do the best I can.
Feel free to comment on content or style. All feedback, even the hard stuff, is designed to make me better at expressing myself. Besides, maybe one day I'll be famous and you can say you remember reading my inane goings on way back when.
I am pretty random person who loves to rant to himself in the car when a semi-truck obstructs his going the speed limit. So the blog will mostly be about whatever is in my head that day. It could be sports (likely) to the general populous (almost as likely) to things going on at CWU or in my life. I probably won't be too personal, nor do I expect that I will be the most timely updater, but I will do the best I can.
Feel free to comment on content or style. All feedback, even the hard stuff, is designed to make me better at expressing myself. Besides, maybe one day I'll be famous and you can say you remember reading my inane goings on way back when.
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