Beware of hindsight

The Mariners are in Baltimore this week (and have just lost their second of the series and fourth in a row). I suppose this would be a time for folks to watch Adam Jones and lament the trade that sent Jones along with Chris Tillman and others to the O's for Erik Bedard. I can't defend Bedard's tenure in Seattle. He's been hurt much of the time, including all last season. He's also been hardly a stalwart in terms of going deep into games, usually lasting five or six innings. Of course it's easy to look back and blast Bill Bavasi for making such a bad deal. It also seems that people want to use the performance of the player now as some sort of judgment about the talent level. That kind of look is dangerous and generally wrong. Think of it this way. If Ichiro attempts to steal second base and is thrown out, and then the next pitch is hit for a home run, it would be easy to say that it should have been a two-run homer. But that ignores context. The reason that pitch was thrown was due to the situation. If Ichiro had been on first, there is likely a different pitch thrown, leading to a different result. The same can be said for the development of players. There is no telling how Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Kim Mickolio, etc. would have developed under the Seattle Mariners. And certainly the Mariners would not have traded for Franklin Gutierrez with a young center fielder they were developing.

Now, the tools would have remained similar with Seattle, but it's the development of these tools that people have to think about. Would the Mariners have allowed Tillman to remain a starter in the minor leagues, or would he have been rushed to the majors in the bullpen much like Brandon Morrow? Would Adam Jones remained a left fielder? And to go even further with Adam Jones, how would a right-handed hitter that is starting to increasingly swing at pitches outside of the zone handle Safeco Field. The park chased Adrian Beltre out of town.

It is easy to look back and think about the team with the players they trade away and performing exactly as they are for another team. But context has to be considered. Speaking of Beltre, he struggled to match his prolific offensive numbers from L.A. in Seattle and then had a monster season in Boston after leaving. Safeco suffocated him. When you think about trades and how the GMs make dumb decisions, you have to understand that the numbers one player is putting up will not be the same for your team. It just doesn't work that way.

Odd Thoughts:
-I still miss the Sonics. It makes me sad to watch the team that they are now in the playoffs.
-Isaiah Thomas is making a bad choice sticking in the draft. IT, you are not Nate Robinson. Sorry.
-Finally, if you're a fantasy baseball player, you need to consider upgrading to simulation baseball. It really is a great step up in baseball knowledge.