Tonight's the night! The best night of the year. That first pitch will come from King Felix and once again I'll be hooked for 180 days on what the M's will do to win games not only this season, but in future seasons. The headlines will speak about Felix backing up a Cy Young season; Ichiro continuing his high level or the development of Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda. I think this season is most important for Jack Z though. Make the right moves during the season, he'll come back and get to complete the rebuilding job. Another season with a win total in the 60s, things are going to be pretty rough for him. He seems to be an above average executive who isn't quite the genius we all thought when he worked the Franklin Gutierrez trade. But this year will be crucial. Is Justin Smoak the real deal? If so, that works in Z's favor. Was starting Pineda in the majors in a lost season the right call? Can Miguel Olivo post decent numbers in Safeco? It's a big season for the upper management for sure.
The offense:
I hated the Olivo signing on two levels. One, it was a two-year deal. That never made much sense to me. Also, he seemed a bad fit for the park. Regardless, Olivo is a big key to getting the offense back on track. 2010 saw an offense of historically bad proportions. It is unlikely that we'll see it again, but of course nowhere does unlikely guarantee it won't happen. But getting the negativities out, this offense should be better. Figgins and Ichiro should get on base a lot in front Bradley and Cust. The offense should be better. I don't expect a lot of Olivo, but I think the development of Smoak as a hitter and Ackley when he comes up will make this a better team. That said, the offense is the most concerning part of the ballclub and will hold them back from being truly competitive, especially if Gutierrez is out for a significant portion of time. The hopeful part of me thinks that with a healthy Gutierrez and with Michael Saunders fixing his swing, this lineup will look pretty good by the end of the season.
The pitching:
When Michael Pineda was announced as the fifth starter, I went over the Mariner rotation. On paper, this could be one of the better rotations in the AL and in the top half of the majors. Barely in the top half, but it could be the 12th or 13th best rotation. This is, of course, a hopeful ranking with Bedard making 25-30 starts and Pineda pitching well for a rookie. There is no guarantee on the health of either nor Pineda transitioning successfully. But this rotation looks set up to be above average, the strength of the team. The bullpen is a little less settled and full of fireballers who may or may not throw strikes. The inclusion of Josh Lueke was interesting. He pretty much has to pan out on and off the field for that part of the Cliff Lee trade to backfire on Z. All indications are that he looks good though.
The outlook:
I could say that the M's look like a 75-win ballclub and be done with it. That's about where they end up which is a significant improvement from last season. But I don't think the win-loss record defines the success of this season. We'll look at Pineda and Ackley as one big part of the season. The other part is what Z can get for Aardsma and Jack Wilson. If he gets a decent haul out of either, then we can all be hopeful for 2012. That's the key to a fun and hope-building 2011 Mariner season.
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