The defining week

On May 13th, the Mariners were 16-23, in the midst of a three-game losing streak and looking every bit the 100-loss team they were last year. They have lost only twice since then. Of course, it helps that in the four series they've played, they faced the Twins twice and the Padres once. Their other series being a two-gamer against the Angels at home. They are now just one game under .500 and a mere 1.5 games out of first place in the AL West. Beginning tonight, the M's embark on a 10-game homestand that could very well define their season. No one expected them to contend for a division title, and despite their teasing thus far, it is still a little incomprehensible. But the next week could tell us a different story. The Yankees are in town, as well as the Rays (the Orioles are sandwiched in-between). If they finish this homestand with an above .500 record and still within a game or two of the AL West, what then? It will be June at that point and the contenders and pretenders will be a little more established. The AL West seems to be down and potentially ripe for the taking. Would it be possible to try and accelerate the plans for contention and deal away a prospect or two to acquire an offensive juggernaut this team needs?

Well, of course, you can always deal your young players, even to contenders. But it's hard to say the M's are deep enough in their farm system to be able to pull off any major deal. They won't trade Dustin Ackley who will likely be called up in the next 2-3 weeks to help a sagging offense. Michael Pineda is a key part of the rotation. So you look to guys like Nick Franklin who could be the key piece to any deal. I just am not sure I see it. The farm system is better off, no doubt about it. It would just be very hard to dig into the system and deplete it a little bit to make a move with a team that was never supposed to contend in the first place.

Of course, the counter argument also comes from our backyard. When the Seahawks were at 6-9 and getting ready to face the St. Louis Rams in Week 17, a Seattle Times poll showed that many fans wanted them to lose and get a top-10 draft pick. They gave the Hawks almost no chance in the playoffs. Then they beat the Saints and we got to see "The Run." It showed that the playoffs are a little bit of an unknown. With Felix Hernandez as the ace, and a strong rotation behind him, what could the M's do in a playoff series? If they deal off Jack Wilson for something helpful, and maybe pair up Nick Franklin and Michael Saunders with a prospect and get a bat. This team isn't half bad.

It sure is fun to think about. And the next 10 days will prove a huge test for the M's. The Yanks have the tough challenge of facing both Pineda and Felix, and then Felix will pitch the first game against Tampa. The question of contention will be asked if they 31-28 after all of this. Hopefully I'm this optimistic in 10 days.

Go M's!

Beware of hindsight

The Mariners are in Baltimore this week (and have just lost their second of the series and fourth in a row). I suppose this would be a time for folks to watch Adam Jones and lament the trade that sent Jones along with Chris Tillman and others to the O's for Erik Bedard. I can't defend Bedard's tenure in Seattle. He's been hurt much of the time, including all last season. He's also been hardly a stalwart in terms of going deep into games, usually lasting five or six innings. Of course it's easy to look back and blast Bill Bavasi for making such a bad deal. It also seems that people want to use the performance of the player now as some sort of judgment about the talent level. That kind of look is dangerous and generally wrong. Think of it this way. If Ichiro attempts to steal second base and is thrown out, and then the next pitch is hit for a home run, it would be easy to say that it should have been a two-run homer. But that ignores context. The reason that pitch was thrown was due to the situation. If Ichiro had been on first, there is likely a different pitch thrown, leading to a different result. The same can be said for the development of players. There is no telling how Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Kim Mickolio, etc. would have developed under the Seattle Mariners. And certainly the Mariners would not have traded for Franklin Gutierrez with a young center fielder they were developing.

Now, the tools would have remained similar with Seattle, but it's the development of these tools that people have to think about. Would the Mariners have allowed Tillman to remain a starter in the minor leagues, or would he have been rushed to the majors in the bullpen much like Brandon Morrow? Would Adam Jones remained a left fielder? And to go even further with Adam Jones, how would a right-handed hitter that is starting to increasingly swing at pitches outside of the zone handle Safeco Field. The park chased Adrian Beltre out of town.

It is easy to look back and think about the team with the players they trade away and performing exactly as they are for another team. But context has to be considered. Speaking of Beltre, he struggled to match his prolific offensive numbers from L.A. in Seattle and then had a monster season in Boston after leaving. Safeco suffocated him. When you think about trades and how the GMs make dumb decisions, you have to understand that the numbers one player is putting up will not be the same for your team. It just doesn't work that way.

Odd Thoughts:
-I still miss the Sonics. It makes me sad to watch the team that they are now in the playoffs.
-Isaiah Thomas is making a bad choice sticking in the draft. IT, you are not Nate Robinson. Sorry.
-Finally, if you're a fantasy baseball player, you need to consider upgrading to simulation baseball. It really is a great step up in baseball knowledge.